Bitcoin has formed lower highs and higher lows on its 1-hour time frame to create a descending channel pattern. Price is bouncing off support and might be due for a test of the resistance soon.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the channel resistance and also a former support zone. It also coincides with the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point while the 61.8% Fib is near the 200 SMA dynamic resistance.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the downtrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. The gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect strengthening selling pressure.
Stochastic is still on the move up, though, so there may be some bullish energy left. This could keep the correction going on until the oscillator reaches overbought territory and turns back down. RSI also seems to be slowly grinding higher but might also be treading sideways to reflect range-bound conditions.
Bitcoin traders still seem to be waiting on a strong enough catalyst to spur and sustain an upside break, otherwise profit-taking off earlier longs could stay in play. There’s still a lot of attention on the SEC decision on bitcoin ETFs, although there’s also a lot to look forward to with institutional investments likely to pick up on Fidelity’s platform.
Besides, an extension of risk aversion in the general financial markets could also discourage traders from putting more funds in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical risks from Brexit talks, Italy’s budget troubles, and trade tensions appear to be weighing on traders’ appetite for risk. Even so, many analysts are pointing to how bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is looking at more upside sooner or later.
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