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Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures Dominate Spot Markets Again

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The traders of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have returned. This suggests that at least the Terra fallout has been overcome.

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Is recovery imminent?

An analysis of the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures volume shows: both have regained dominance over the spot volume.

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On spot markets, traders can buy and sell tokens for instant transaction. The spot volume refers to the total amount of coins transferred on the chain, counting only successful transfers.

In contrast, futures traders buy and sell derivative contracts that represent the value of a particular cryptocurrency. Experienced traders prefer futures trading, as profits can be made in both directions of the market.

Since experienced traders use leverage and are usually better capitalized than spot traders, futures markets tend to turn over more volume compared to spot markets under “normal” conditions.

Ethereum Cash and Futures Markets

The chart below shows the general trend that Ethereum spot volume is lagging behind the futures market. However, the cash markets were particularly well represented at the end of 2021 and at the beginning of the new year.

From the end of June 2022, the discrepancy between futures and the spot market will become more and more obvious. Analysts suggest that this is due to the increasing speculation about the upcoming Ethereum upgrade “The Merge” is due. In this case, the existing execution layer of Ethereum is integrated into the proof-of-stake consensus layer (PoS).

Ethereum Cash Register vs. Futures volume, ETH futures volume vs. Transfer volume (Source: Glassnode)

Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets

An analysis of the Bitcoin cash and futures markets gives a different picture. The graph below shows that the futures volume has a significant lead at the beginning of the bull run in 2021. However, when the BTC price peaked in the 4th quarter of 2021, this scenario reversed – the spot volume took the lead.

Since June 2022, futures traders have maintained their position again. This has led to a renewed increase in the futures volume compared to the spot volume.

Bitcoin Spot vs. Futures Chart, Futures to BTC Spot Ratio (Source: Glassnode)

BTC and ETH ratio

The futures/spot ratio represents the above as a line chart. That Bitcoin-Futures / spot ratio in the first half of 2021 was significantly higher than that of Ethereum.

A lull followed, in which both ratios fell and moved in close correlation. However, the Ethereum futures/spot ratio increased from June 2022 due to price speculation about the upcoming merge event compared to the BTC ratio.

BTC and ETH futures/Spot ratio, Futures/Spot ratio, BTC and ETH (Source: Glassnode)

The renewed increase in the volume of BTC and ETH futures suggests that derivatives traders are again speculating on risk assets. This suggests that derivatives traders assume that the leverage that led to the collapse of Terra has left the market.

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