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Bitcoin is in danger of a new crash – even below $17,700

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On-chain analysis suggests that the Bitcoin price may fall below the local low of $17,700 reached in June.

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Financial science defines a Bear market as a period of prolonged price decline, during which the price of an asset falls by 20% or more from recent highs.

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There is no single definition for a crypto bear market. However, since digital assets are enormously volatile, it is argued that the percentage decline after which a crypto bear market is determined should be -40%, perhaps -60%.

Nevertheless, the market has fallen by about -74% from its peak in ten months. There is no doubt that Bitcoin we are in a crypto bear market.

For example, on June 18, BTC recorded a local low of $ 17,700, closing below the previous peak of the cycle for the first time in its history. Some analysts call this the low point of the market cycle. However, the analysis of several on-chain metrics suggests otherwise.

How many Bitcoin addresses are in profit?

The percentage of Bitcoin-Profitable addresses refers to the proportion of unique addresses whose funds have an average purchase price that is lower than the current price.

In this case, the “Purchase price” is defined as the price at the time of token transfer to an address. At each previous low point of the cycle, 50% or less Bitcoin addresses were in loss.

The graph below shows a current value of about 58%. This suggests that the BTC price needs to fall even further.

Bitcoin-percentage of addresses in profit, source: Glassnode.com

Market value to realized value – what does this mean?

The ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV) refers to the ratio between market capitalization (or market value) and realized capitalization (or stored value). By compiling this information, the MVRV indicates when the Bitcoin-Price above or below the “fair value” trades.

At the same time, by comparing long-term and short-term MVRV, it is possible to estimate the capitulation of long-term holders.

The long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) only takes into account unused transaction expenses with a lifespan of at least 155 days. It serves as an indicator for assessing the behavior of long-term investors.

The last four cycle lows were characterized by a convergence of the STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV lines. Such an intersection has not yet occurred. This suggests that the long-term holders have to capitulate in relation to the short-term holders.

Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value, Source: Glassnode.com

Offer profit/loss

The Offer in Profit and Loss (SPL) examines the circulating offer in profit and loss. In other words, the number of tokens whose price was lower or higher than the current price when they last moved is considered.

Similar to the previous two examples, the lows of the previous cycles were reached when the profit and loss lines converged. At present, however, the payline has yet to converge against the loss line.

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